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The future enlargement of the European Union is theoretically open to any European country which is democratic, operates a free market and is willing and able to implement all previous European Union law.[3] Past enlargement has brought membership from six to twenty-seven members since the foundation of the European Union (EU) as the European Coal and Steel Community by the Inner Six in 1952. The accession criteria are included in the Copenhagen criteria, agreed in 1993, and the Treaty of Maastricht (Article 49). Whether a country is European or not is a subject to political assessment by the EU institutions.[4]
At present, there are five recognised candidates for membership: Montenegro (applied 2008), Croatia (applied 2003), Iceland (applied 2009), Macedonia (applied 2004), Turkey (applied 1987). Macedonia and Montenegro have not yet started negotiations to join.[5] The other states in the Western Balkans—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia—have signed Stabilisation and Association Agreements (SAA) with the EU, which generally precede the lodging of membership applications.[6] Albania (April 2009) and Serbia (December 2009)[7] have already applied for membership, but the European Commission has as of October 2011 only recommended Serbia's official candidate status.[8]
On Central and Eastern European countries not being parts of the EU, Heather Grabbe (UK) of the Centre for European Reform commented: "Belarus is too authoritarian, Moldova too poor, Ukraine too large, and Russia too scary for the EU to contemplate offering membership any time soon."[9] This was confirmed by a Polish-Swedish authored EU strategy which outlined full integration short of membership being offered to states in the East of Europe but no enlargement perspective offered in the short to medium term.[10]
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The present enlargement agenda of the European Union regards Turkey, the Western Balkans and Iceland. Turkey has a long standing application with the EU but the negotiations are expected to take many more years. As for the Western Balkan states, the EU had pledged to include them after their civil wars: in fact, one state has entered, three are candidates, two have applied and the others have pre-accession agreements. Finally, Iceland has recently applied and, if sensitive negotiations over fishing can be overcome, is expected to complete negotiations rapidly due to its membership in the European Economic Area.
There are however other states in Europe which either seek membership or could potentially apply if their present foreign policy changes, or the EU gives a signal that they might now be included on the enlargement agenda. However, these are not formally part of the current agenda, which is already delayed due to bilateral disputes in the Balkans and difficulty in fully implementing the acquis communautaire (the accepted body of EU law).
| State |
Status |
Association Agreement |
Applied for Membership |
Candidate status |
Start of negotiations |
Screening completed |
Acquis Chapters open/closed[11] |
Population |
Area (km²) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | Applicant | 12 June 2006 (SAA) | 28 April 2009 | – | – | – | – | 2,831,741[12] | 28,748 | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | Associate | 16 June 2008 (SAA) | – | – | – | – | – | 3,981,239 | 51,129 | |
| Croatia | Acceding | 29 October 2001 (SAA) | 21 February 2003 | 18 June 2004 | 3 October 2005 | 13 October 2006 | 33/33 of 33 | 4,489,409 | 56,542 | |
| Iceland | Negotiating | 2 May 1992 (EEA) | 16 July 2009 | 17 June 2010 | 27 July 2010 | 21 June 2011 | 11/8 of 33 | 319,756 | 103,001 | |
| Kosovo (UNSCR 1244)[13] | Early talks | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,830,000 | 10,908 | |
| Macedonia | Candidate | 9 April 2001 (SAA) | 22 March 2004 | 17 December 2005 | – | – | – | 2,114,550 | 25,713 | |
| Montenegro | Candidate | 15 October 2007 (SAA) | 15 December 2008 | 17 December 2010 | – | – | – | 678,177 | 13,812 | |
| Serbia | Applicant | 29 April 2008 (SAA) | 22 December 2009 | – | – | – | 7,275,000 | 88,361 | ||
| Turkey | Negotiating | 12 September 1963 (AA) | 14 April 1987 | 12 December 1999 | 3 October 2005 | 13 October 2006 | 13/1 of 33 | 74,816,000 | 783,562 |
Croatia applied for membership in 2003 and will become a member on 1 July 2013. After Slovenia, Croatia has recovered best from the break-up of the former Yugoslavia and pushed to become the second former Yugoslav state to join. It has a stable market economy and a GDP per capita that is higher than three existing EU member states.
The European Council agreed and accession negotiations were concluded on 30 June 2011.[14][15] Signing of the Treaty of Accession took place[16] on 9 December 2011.
There are at present four "candidate countries", who have applied to the EU and been accepted in principle.[5] These states have begun, or will begin shortly, the accession process by adopting EU law to bring the states in line with the rest of the Union. Macedonia and Montenegro have applied recently and are states of the former Yugoslavia (all other successor states are planning to join the EU) but Turkey is a long-standing candidate, having applied in 1987 and gaining candidate status in 1999.[17] This is due to both the complex nature of bringing Turkey into line with EU standards and also the political issues surrounding the accession of the country.[18]
Iceland applied to join the EU in July 2009 following an economic downturn. Prior to that, its relations with the EU were defined by its membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), which gave it access to the EU's single market, and the Schengen treaty. As a result of the membership of the EEA, Iceland already applies many major economic EU laws and negotiations are expected to proceed rapidly (although 2005 research by the EFTA Secretariat found the exact percentage of laws adopted to be only 6.5%;[19][20] see below for European Commission assessment).
Like in Norway, fear of losing control over the fishery resources in its territorial waters was the single largest issue that kept Iceland reluctant to join the EU. However, the strong effect of the economic crisis of 2008 on Iceland accelerated the debate considerably and the Independence Party, the largest opposing party, agreed to opening accession negotiations after a referendum (in addition to a final referendum).[21] A proposal to begin negotiations with the EU was put before the Icelandic parliament in July 2009[22] and approved (without a pre-negotiation referendum) by a slim majority on 16 July 2009. Iceland submitted its application to the Swedish presidency in a letter dated 16 July. The application was acknowledged by the Council of the European Union on 27 July.[23] On 8 September, the EU commission sent a list of 2,500 questions to Iceland about its fulfilment of convergence criteria and adoption of EU law. Iceland returned answers to the commission on 22 October 2009. On 2 November, Iceland selected a chief negotiator for the coming membership negotiations with the EU: Stefan Haukur Johannesson, Iceland's Ambassador to Belgium. In February 2010, the European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy recommended to the Council of the European Union to start accession negotiations with Iceland. The European Council decided in June that negotiations shall start,[24] and on 17 June 2010, the EU granted official candidate status to Iceland by formally approving the opening of membership talks.[25] On 26 July 2010, the European Union foreign ministers formally gave the green light for negotiations to begin and agreed to start the talks on the following day.[26]
The first annual report on negotiations was published in November 2010;[27] the main issues at stake remain the fisheries sector and whale hunting, while progress has been made concerning the Icesave dispute.[28]
Macedonia applied to become an official candidate on 22 March 2004. On 9 November 2005, the European Commission recommended that it attain candidate status. EU leaders agreed to this recommendation on 17 December, formally naming the country an official candidate. However, no starting date for negotiations has been announced yet.
Peace is maintained with underlying ethnic tensions over Albanians in the west of the country, who achieved greater autonomy through the implementation of the Ohrid Accords. Unlike Serbia, Macedonia has maintained sovereignty over all its territory. Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski has suggested that the country could join the EU in 2012 or 2013.[29] However, the EU has not yet recognised this suggested time period.
On 17 December 2005, the European Council welcomed and congratulated the country's achievements in implementing multiple reforms and agreements (Copenhagen criteria, Stabilisation and Association process, Ohrid Agreement).[30]
The country has a dispute over its name with its southern neighbour and current EU member, Greece. Greece rejects the name "Macedonia" because it says it implies territorial ambitions towards Greece's own northern province of Macedonia (see: Macedonia naming dispute). Because of this, the EU refers to the country only by the provisional appellation "the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" (FYRoM). The resolution of the name issue has become a precondition for accession,[31] since Greece has repeatedly confirmed it would use its right to block accession without a prior settlement.[32] Concerns over the country's difficulties in reaching European standards on the rule of law and the economy[33] and over violence and irregularities in the 2008 parliamentary elections[34] have also cast doubts on the country's candidacy.
In the independence referendum of 21 May 2006, the Montenegrin people voted for Montenegro to leave the state union of Serbia and Montenegro and become an independent state. After obtaining independence, Montenegro officially submitted its EU membership application to the European Commission (EC) on 15 December 2008.[35] However, Montenegro has been experiencing ecological, judicial and crime-related problems that could slow or hinder its bid.
Montenegro unilaterally adopted the euro as its currency at its launch in 2002, having previously used the German mark. Negotiations over the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) started in September 2006.[36] SAA was officially signed on 15 October 2007 and came into force on 1 May 2010, after all the 27 member-states of EU had ratified it.[37][38]
On 22 July 2009, a questionnaire to assess Montenegro's application was presented to the Montenegrin Government by the EC. On 9 December 2009, Montenegro delivered its answers to the EC questionnaire. On 9 November 2010, the European Commission recommended that the Council of the European Union grant Montenegro the status of candidate country.[39] On 17 December 2010, Montenegro became an official EU candidate country.[40]
Montenegro's population is overwhelmingly for joining the EU, 76.2% being in favour according to polling and only 9.8% against.[41]
The status of Turkey with regard to the EU has become a matter of major significance and considerable controversy in recent years. Turkey is one of the founding members of the Council of Europe since 1949 and has been an "associate member" of the European Union and its predecessors since 1964, as a result of the EEC–Turkey Association Agreement (Ankara Agreement) that was signed on 12 September 1963.[42] The country formally applied for full membership on 14 April 1987, but 12 years passed before it was recognised as a candidate country at the Helsinki Summit in 1999. After a summit in Brussels on 17 December 2004 (following the major 2004 enlargement), the European Council announced that membership negotiations with Turkey were officially opened on 3 October 2005. The screening process which began on 20 October 2005 was completed on 18 October 2006.
Turkey, with the seventh largest economy in the Council of Europe and the fifteenth largest economy in the world,[43] is part of the common EU customs territory since the entering into force of the EU–Turkey Customs Union in 1996. Turkey was a founding member of the OECD in 1961, a founding member of the OSCE in 1973 and was an associate member of the Western European Union from 1992 until its dissolution in 2011 . Turkey is also a founding member of the G-20 major economies (1999) which has close ties with the European Union.
Proponents of Turkey's membership argue that it is a key regional power[44][45] with a large economy and the second largest military force of NATO[46][47] that will enhance the EU's position as a global geostrategic player; given Turkey's geographic location and economic, political and cultural ties in regions with that are in the immediate vicinity of the EU's geopolitical sphere of influence; such as the East Mediterranean and Black Sea coasts, the Balkan peninsula, the Middle East, the Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia.[48][49]
According to Carl Bildt, Swedish foreign minister, "[The accession of Turkey] would give the EU a decisive role for stability in the Eastern part of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, which is clearly in the strategic interest of Europe."[50] One of Turkey's key supporters for its bid to join the EU is the United Kingdom. In May 2008, Queen Elizabeth II said during a visit to Turkey, that "Turkey is uniquely positioned as a bridge between the East and West at a crucial time for the European Union and the world in general."[51]
However others, such as French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, maintain an opposition to Turkey's membership. Opponents argue that Turkey does not respect the key principles that are expected in a liberal democracy, such as the freedom of expression, with potentially repressive laws like Article 301 (A law which states it is illegal to "insult the Turkish nation");[52] and because of the significant role of the army on the Turkish administrative foreground through the National Security Council; whose military-dominated structure was reformed on 23 July 2003, in line with the requests from the EU.[53] Turkey's large population would also alter the balance of power in the representative European institutions. Upon joining the EU, Turkey's 70 million inhabitants would bestow it the second largest number of MEPs in the European Parliament.[47] Demographic projections indicate that Turkey would surpass Germany in the number of seats by 2020.[47]
Other opponents to Turkey's membership state that it would also affect future enlargement plans, especially the number of nations seeking EU membership,[47] grounds by which Valéry Giscard d'Estaing has opposed Turkey's admission. Giscard d'Estaing has suggested that it would lead to demands for accession by Morocco. Morocco's application is already rejected on geographic grounds, and Turkey, unlike Morocco, has territory in Europe. French President Nicolas Sarkozy (then a candidate) stated in January 2007 that "enlarging Europe with no limit risks destroying European political union, and that I do not accept...I want to say that Europe must give itself borders, that not all countries have a vocation to become members of Europe, beginning with Turkey which has no place inside the European Union."[54] Further, some oppose the accession of a largely Muslim country. In 2004, future President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy stated "An enlargement [of the EU] with Turkey is not in any way comparable with previous enlargement waves. Turkey is not Europe and will never be Europe." He continued "But it's a matter of fact that the universal values which are in force in Europe, and which are also the fundamental values of Christianity, will lose vigour with the entry of a large Islamic country such as Turkey."
Only a small fraction of the Turkish territory around 3% lies in the present common geographical definition of Europe, with approximately 97% of its land mass being in Asia. On the other hand, the country's largest city, Istanbul, lies mostly in Europe. The population in the commonly defined as European part of Turkey is approximately ten million inhabitants, which is larger than Sweden, Austria, or 14 out of the 27 present EU members. In addition, the EU already has a member state located entirely in Asia—Cyprus to the south east of Anatolia and part of Anatolia's continental shelf.
Another concern is the Cyprus dispute. The northern third of the island of Cyprus is considered by the EU and most states in the world to be part of the Republic of Cyprus, an EU member state, but is de facto controlled by the government of Northern Cyprus, which is recognised by Turkey. Turkey, for its part, does not recognise the Republic of Cyprus pending a resolution to the dispute under the auspices of the United Nations, and has 40,000 troops stationed on territory controlled by the Northern Cypriot government. The UN-backed Annan Plan for the re-unification of Cyprus was actively supported by the EU and Turkey. Separate referendums held in April 2004 produced different results on either side of the island: while accepted by the Turkish Cypriots in the north, the plan was rejected by the Greek Cypriots in the south.
Albania has signed the SAA and applied for EU membership but is not yet recognised as an official candidate. Accession talks between Albania and the EU cannot begin until they are granted official candidate status.
Albania applied for EU membership on 28 April 2009. Officially recognised by the EU as a "potential candidate country", Albania started negotiations on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) in 2003. SAA was signed on 12 June 2006 and entered force on 1 April 2009, thus completing the first major step towards EU membership.
Following the same path of the recently admitted Central European and Mediterranean countries in 2004 and 2007, Albania has been extensively engaged with EU institutions, and joined NATO as a full member in 2009. It has also maintained its position as a stability factor and a strong ally of European Union and USA in the troubled and divided region of the Balkans.[55]
After the application for EU membership was sent by the Albanian Government, on 16 November 2009 the Council of the European Union asked the European Commission (EC) to prepare an assessment concerning the readiness of the Republic of Albania to start accession negotiations, a process lasting about a year usually.[56] On 16 December 2009 the EC submitted the questionnaire on accessing preparation to the Albanian Government. Albania returned the questionnaire's answers to the EC on 14 April 2010.[57] Candidacy status was not recognized by the EU along with Montenegro in December 2010, due to the long-lasting political row in the country.[58] In December 2010, Albanian citizens were given the right by the European Union to travel without visas to the Schengen area.[59]
The government of Serbia has the goal for the EU accession in 2014 per Papandreou plan—Agenda 2014.[60][61] Negotiations on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement started in November 2005.[62]
On 29 April 2008, Serbian officials signed an SAA with the EU,[63] and the Serbian President sought official candidate status by the end of 2008.[64] The Dutch government refused to ratify the agreement while Ratko Mladić was not captured. He was captured in Serbia on 26 May 2011, removing the main obstacle for obtaining candidate status. As of January 2009, the Serbian government has started to implement its obligations under the agreement unilaterally.[65] The effects remain to be evaluated by the European Commission. Despite its setbacks in the political field, on 7 December 2009, EU unfroze the trade agreement with Serbia.[66] Serbian citizens gained visa-free travel to the Schengen zone on 19 December 2009,[67] and Serbia officially applied for the EU membership on 22 December 2009.[68]
In November 2010, The Economist stated that "EU Foreign Ministers have agreed to pass Serbia's request for membership to the European Commission".[69] The European Commission sent a legislative questionnaire of around 2500 questions[70] and Serbia answered to on 31 January 2011. On 12 October 2011, the European Commission has recommended that Serbia should be granted an official EU candidate status following its successful application for the EU membership.[71] As such, Serbia now hopes to receive full candidate status in March 2012, contingent on negotiation progress with Kosovo.[72]
The EU's relations with the Western Balkans states were moved from the "External Relations" to the "Enlargement" policy segment in 2005. Those states which have not been recognised as candidate countries are considered "potential candidate countries".[73] The move to Enlargement directorate was a consequence of the advancement of the Stabilisation and Association process.
The 2003 European Council summit in Thessaloniki set integration of the Western Balkans as a priority of EU expansion.
The successor states of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and of Albania, have all adopted EU integration as an aim of foreign policy. Slovenia joined the EU on 1 May 2004. Croatia and Macedonia were then granted candidate status, and as of 2010 Albania, Montenegro and Serbia have already lodged in their membership applications and Montenegro has also gained candidate status.
Serbia and Albania are still regarded by the EU as potential candidates but have submitted candidacy for EU membership. That leaves only Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo (UNSCR 1244) as potential candidates that have not yet applied for EU membership. Bosnia and Herzegovina has SAA while Kosovo (UNSCR 1244) does not.
The EU signed an agreement with Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Montenegro on 13 April 2007, and Serbia on 15 May 2007, which included visa facilitations for the citizens of these countries. The signing EU Commissioner Franco Frattini was quoted saying that this is the first step towards full abolition of the visa requirements and the free movement of the Western Balkans citizens in EU. Citizens of Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia have enjoyed visa-free travel to the EU since 19 December 2009, whereas citizens of Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina gained it in December 2010. Only Kosovan citizens are still under EU visa regime.
On 9 November 2005, the European Commission suggested in a new strategy paper that the current enlargement agenda (Croatia, Turkey and the Western Balkans) could potentially block the possibility of a future accession of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.[74] Olli Rehn has said on occasion that the EU should "avoid overstretching our capacity, and instead consolidate our enlargement agenda," adding, "this is already a challenging agenda for our accession process."[75]
Bosnia and Herzegovina still has many economic as well as political problems. Recently it has been making slow but steady progress, including co-operation with the war crimes tribunal at The Hague.
Negotiations on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement started during the year 2005 and concluded December 2007. This is the first step before making an application for candidate status and membership negotiations. The negotiations were expected to be finalised in late 2007,[76] but due to the failure of the government to decide in time on police reform in line with EU principles they could be finalised in late 2008 at the earliest. Due to this setback and the hard-line positions of most Bosnian politicians, High Representative Miroslav Lajčák has stated that he will shift more of his focus for the time being from EU accession to reforms which would improve the standard of living in the country.
The Union may show some leniency over economic requirements due to the political issues at stake. Former President of the European Commission Romano Prodi has stated that Bosnia and Herzegovina has a chance of joining the EU soon after Croatia, but it is entirely dependent on the country's progress.
The SAA was initialed on Tuesday, 4 December 2007 by Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn and caretaker Prime Minister Nikola Špirić. The initialing came in the wake of successful negotiations by Miroslav Lajčák in regards to passing his new quorum rules laws and also the commitment of Bosnian and Herzegovinian politicians to implementing police reform. The SAA was signed on 16 June 2008.
According to the Foreign Minister Sven Alkalaj, Bosnia and Herzegovina planned to submit an application for membership between April and June 2009.[77] However, an application was ultimately not submitted in this time frame. In February 2010, Alkalaj stated that Bosnia now planned to submit their membership application by the end of the year.[78] Again, no application was actually filed.
The main obstacle towards EU accession of Kosovo is the different position of the member countries on its 2008 declaration of independence.[79][80][81] The European Commission noted in its annual report for the progress of the countries candidates and potential candidates for EU accession, that Kosovo faces major challenges, including ensuring the rule of law, the fight against corruption and organised crime, the strengthening of administrative capacity, and the protection of the Serb and other minorities.[82][83]
As confirmed by the Thessaloniki Summit in June 2003, Kosovo is firmly anchored in the framework of the Stabilisation and Association Process, the EU policy which applies to the Western Balkans.
On 20 April 2005 the European Commission adopted the Communication on Kosovo to the Council "A European Future for Kosovo" which reinforces the Commission’s commitment to Kosovo. Furthermore, on 20 January 2006, the Council adopted a European Partnership for Serbia and Montenegro including Kosovo as defined by UNSCR1244. The European Partnership is a means to materialise the European perspective of the Western Balkan countries within the framework of the stabilisation and association process.
The Provisional Institutions of Self Government (PISG) adopted an Action Plan for the Implementation of the European Partnership in August 2006 and this document forms the current working basis between the EU and the PISG. The PISG regularly report on the implementation of this action plan. Twelve meetings of the so-called "Stabilisation Tracking Mechanism" (STM), specially devised to promote policy dialogue between the EU and the Kosovan authorities on EU approximation matters have taken place so far. In addition, a new structure of sectoral meetings under the umbrella of the STM was established in the areas of good governance, economy, internal market, innovation and infrastructure in March 2007.[84]
Kosovo's politicians announced that they expect Kosovo to join the EU in 2015.[85]
It was previously the norm for enlargements to see multiple entrants join the Union at once. The only previous enlargement of a single state was the 1981 admission of Greece.
However, the EU members have warned that, following the significant impact of the fifth enlargement in 2004, a more individual approach will be adopted in the future, although the entry of pairs or small groups of countries will most probably coincide.[86]
| Countries | Recognised candidate countries[87] | Official potential candidate countries[88] | Reference states | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Application submitted | No application submitted | ||||||||||||||||
Event |
Turkey[89] | Croatia[90] | Macedonia[91] | Iceland[92] | Montenegro[93] | Albania[94] | Serbia[95] | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
Kosovo (UNSCR 1244) |
Finland | Czech Republic |
Slovakia | Bulgaria | ||||
| EU Association Agreement 1 negotiations start | 1959AA 1970CU |
24 Nov 2000 | 5 Apr 2000 | 1990 | 10 Oct 2005 | 31 Jan 2003 | 10 Oct 2005 | 25 Nov 2005 | (tbd) | 1990 | 1990 | 1990 | 1990 | ||||
| EU Association Agreement signature | 12 Sep 1963AA 1995CU |
29 Oct 2001 | 9 Apr 2001 | 2 May 1992 | 15 Oct 2007 | 12 Jun 2006 | 29 Apr 2008 | 16 Jun 2008 | (tbd) | 2 May 1992 | 4 Oct 1993 | 4 Oct 1993 | 8 Mar 1993 | ||||
| EU Association Agreement entry into force | 1 Dec 1964AA 31 Dec 1995CU |
1 Feb 2005 | 1 Apr 2004 | 1 Jan 1994 | 1 May 2010 | 1 Apr 2009 | (2012) | (2012) | (tbd) | 1 Jan 1994 | 1 Feb 1995 | 1 Feb 1995 | 1 Feb 1995 | ||||
| Membership application submitted | 14 Apr 1987 | 21 Feb 2003 | 22 Mar 2004 | 16 Jul 2009 | 15 Dec 2008 | 28 Apr 2009 | 22 Dec 2009 | (tbd) | (tbd) | 18 Mar 1992 | 17 Jan 1996 | 27 Jun 1995 | 14 Dec 1995 | ||||
| Council asks Commission for opinion | 27 Apr 1987 | 14 Apr 2003 | 17 May 2004 | 27 Jul 2009 | 23 Apr 2009 | 16 Nov 2009 | 25 Oct 2010 | (tbd) | (tbd) | 6 Apr 1992 | 29 Jun 1996 | 17 Jul 1995 | 29 Jan 1996 | ||||
| Commission presents legislative questionnaire to applicant | 10 Jul 2003 | 1 Oct 2004 | 8 Sep 2009 | 22 Jul 2009 | 16 Dec 2009 | 24 Nov 2010 | (tbd) | (tbd) | Mar 1996 | Mar 1996 | Apr 1996 | ||||||
| Applicant responds to questionnaire | 9 Oct 2003 | 10 May 2005 | 22 Oct 2009 | 12 Apr 2010 | 11 Jun 2010 | 22 Apr 2011 | (tbd) | (tbd) | Jun 1997 | Jun 1997 | 25 Apr 1997 | ||||||
| Commission prepares its opinion (and subsequent reports) | 1989, 1997-2004 | 20 Apr 2004 | 2005-09 | 24 Feb 2010 | 9 Nov 2010 | 2010, 2011, 2012 | 12 Oct 2011 | (tbd) | (tbd) | 4 Nov 1992 | 15 Jul 1997 | 1997, 1998, 1999 | 1997, 1998, 1999 | ||||
| Commission recommends granting of candidate status | 13 Oct 1999 | 20 Apr 2004 | 9 Nov 2005 | 24 Feb 2010 | 9 Nov 2010 | (tbd) | 12 Oct 2011 | (tbd) | (tbd) | 4 Nov 1992 | 15 Jul 1997 | 15 Jul 1997 | 15 Jul 1997 | ||||
| Council grants candidate status to Applicant | 12 Dec 1999 | 18 Jun 2004 | 17 Dec 2005 | 17 Jun 2010 | 17 Dec 2010 | (tbd) | (2012) | (tbd) | (tbd) | 21 Dec 1992 | 12 Dec 1997 | 12 Dec 1997 | 12 Dec 1997 | ||||
| Commission recommends starting of negotiations | 6 Oct 2004 | 6 Oct 2004 | 14 Oct 2009 | 24 Feb 2010 | 12 Oct 2011 | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | 4 Nov 1992 | 15 Jul 1997 | 13 Oct 1999 | 13 Oct 1999 | ||||
| Council sets negotiations start date | 17 Dec 2004 | 2004, 2005 | (tbd) | 26 Jul 2010 | (2012) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | 21 Dec 1992 | 12 Dec 1997 | 10 Dec 1999 | 10 Dec 1999 | ||||
| Membership negotiations start | 3 Oct 2005 | 3 Oct 2005 | (tbd) | 27 Jul 2010 | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | 1 Feb 1993 | 31 Mar 1998 | 15 Feb 2000 | 15 Feb 2000 | ||||
| Membership negotiations end | (tbd) | 30 Jun 2011 | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | 1994 | 13 Dec 2002 | 13 Dec 2002 | 17 Dec 2004 | ||||
| Accession Treaty signature | (tbd) | 9 Dec 2011 | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | 24 Jun 1994 | 16 Apr 2003 | 16 Apr 2003 | 25 Apr 2005 | ||||
| EU joining date | (tbd) | (1 Jul 2013)[96] | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | (tbd) | 1 Jan 1995 | 1 May 2004 | 1 May 2004 | 1 Jan 2007 | ||||
| Acquis chapter | |||||||||||||||||
| 1. Free Movement of Goods | f | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 2. Freedom of Movement for Workers | fs | x | – | x | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 3. Right of Establishment & Freedom to provide Services | f | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 4. Free Movement of Capital | o | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 5. Public Procurement | fs | x | – | o | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 6. Company Law | o | x | – | x | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 7. Intellectual Property Law | o | x | – | x | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 8. Competition Policy | fs | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 9. Financial Services | f | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 10. Information Society & Media | o | x | – | o | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 11. Agriculture & Rural Development | f | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 12. Food safety, Veterinary & Phytosanitary Policy | o | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 13. Fisheries | f | x | – | fs3 | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 14. Transport Policy | f | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 15. Energy | fs | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 16. Taxation | o | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 17. Economic & Monetary Policy | fs | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 18. Statistics | o | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 19. Social Policy & Employment | fs 2 | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 20. Enterprise & Industrial Policy | o | x | – | x | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 21. Trans-European Networks | o | x | – | x | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 22. Regional Policy & Coordination of Structural Instruments | fs | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 23. Judiciary & Fundamental Rights | fs | x | – | x | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 24. Justice, Freedom & Security | fs | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 25. Science & Research | x | x | – | x | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 26. Education & Culture | fs | x | – | x | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 27. Environment | o | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 28. Consumer & Health Protection | o | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 29. Customs Union | f | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 30. External Relations | f | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 31. Foreign, Security & Defence Policy | fs | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 32. Financial Control | o | x | – | fs | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 33. Financial & Budgetary Provisions | fs | x | – | o | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 34. Institutions | – | x | – | – | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 35. Other Issues | – | x | – | – | – | – | – | x | x | x | x | ||||||
1 EU Association Agreement type: Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) for the Western Balkans states participating in the Stabilisation and Association process of the EU (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo trough the STM); Association Agreement and Customs Union for Turkey; European Economic Area (EEA) for Iceland and Finland (reference state of the Fourth Enlargement); Europe Agreement for the reference states of the Fifth Enlargement.
2 Including anti-discrimination and equal opportunities for men and women.
3 Most likely the EU will reform its CFP which in some respects may move in the direction of present Icelandic approach as envisioned in the Green paper for the 2013 CFP review.[97] This unique situation is in contrast to all other chapters where only the candidate countries align their laws with the EU acquis.
(bracketed date): approximate and most probable nearest possible date
| Situation of policy area at the start of membership negotiations (Turkey, Croatia, Iceland, reference states), at candidate status recommendation (Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia) or membership application opinion (Albania); according to the 1992 Opinion, 1997 Opinions, 1999 Reports, 2005 Reports, 2010 Opinion, 2010 Reports and 2011 Reports. | ||
|
s – screening of the chapter |
generally already applies the acquis
no major difficulties expected
further efforts needed
non-acquis chapter - nothing to adopt
|
considerable efforts needed
very hard to adopt
situation totally incompatible with EU acquis
|
Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland are members of a free trade area (EFTA) developed in parallel to the EU. Most prior members of EFTA left to join the EU and the remaining countries, except Switzerland, formed the European Economic Area with the EU. Of the current member states only Iceland (see section above) has current aspirations to join the EU.
Liechtenstein is, like Norway and Iceland, a member of the European Economic Area and hence is already heavily integrated with the EU. Although it currently has no intention of joining, it might consider joining the EU if Switzerland joins, as it is doing with the Schengen Agreement. If it attained membership it would become the smallest member state (the current smallest is Malta).
One concern is that unlike the constitutional monarchies within the EU (such as the United Kingdom, Sweden, Denmark, The Netherlands, Belgium, or Spain), the Prince of Liechtenstein exercises considerable executive powers, and is not merely a figurehead. These powers would have to be rescinded in order for Liechtenstein to be fully democratic, which is a condition for admission to the EU.[98]
Norway is not an EU member state, but adopts some EU legislation as a result of its participation in the European Economic Area (EEA) through the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). Additionally, Norway has chosen to opt into some of the Union's programmes, institutions and activities.[99] Whether or not the country should apply for full membership has been a dominant and divisive issue. Division within the current Red-Green Coalition has blocked the issue since the 2005 parliamentary elections. Norway has applied four times for EEC and EU membership. In 1962 and 1967 France vetoed Norway's entry, while the later 1972 referendum and the 1994 referendum were both lost by the government. Norway's application for EU membership has been frozen but not withdrawn. It could be resumed at any time following renewed domestic political will, as happened in the case of Malta.
A large issue for Norway is its fishing resources, which are a significant part of the national economy and which would come under the Common Fisheries Policy if Norway were to accede to the EU.
Norway has high GNP per capita, and would have to pay a high membership fee. The country has a limited amount of agriculture, and few underdeveloped areas, which means that Norway would receive little economic support from the EU. However, as of 2009, Norway has chosen to opt into many EU projects and since its total financial contribution linked to the EEA agreement consists of contributions related to the participation in these projects, and a part made available to development projects for reducing social and economic disparities in the EU (EEA and Norway Grants),[99][100] its participation is on an equal footing with that of EU member states. The total EEA EFTA commitment amounts to 2.4% of the overall EU programme budget.
Norway is a member of the European Economic Area (the EU common market), the Schengen treaty (and was an associate member of the Western European Union until the organization terminated in 2011), as well as other treaties and agreements normally considered as under the EU umbrella. Norway was a founding member of NATO in 1949.
Switzerland took part in negotiating the EEA agreement with the EU and signed the agreement on 2 May 1992 and submitted an application for accession to the EU on 20 May 1992. A Swiss referendum held on 6 December 1992 rejected EEA membership. As a consequence, the Swiss Government decided to suspend negotiations for EU accession until further notice, but its application remains open. The popular initiative entitled "Yes to Europe!", calling for the opening of immediate negotiations for EU membership, was rejected in a 4 March 2001 referendum. The Swiss Federal Council, which is in favour of EU membership, had advised the population to vote against this referendum since the preconditions for the opening of negotiations had not been met. It is thought that the fear of a loss of neutrality and independence is the key issue against membership among eurosceptics. Switzerland has relatively little amount of land area with agriculture, to which a large part of the EU budget goes.
EU membership continued to be the objective of the government and is a "long-term aim" of the Federal Council. Furthermore, the Swiss population agreed to their country's participation in the Schengen Agreement. As a result of that, Switzerland joined the area in December 2008.[101]
The Swiss federal government policy has recently undergone substantial U-turns in policy, however, concerning specific agreements with the EU on freedom of movement for people, workers and areas concerning tax evasion have been addressed within the Swiss banking system. This was a result of the first Switzerland–EU summit in May 2004 where nine bilateral agreements were signed. Romano Prodi, former President of the European Commission, said the agreements "moved Switzerland closer to Europe." Joseph Deiss of the Swiss Federal Council said, "We might not be at the very centre of Europe but we're definitely at the heart of Europe". He continued, "We're beginning a new era of relations between our two entities."[102]
The Swiss government declared in September 2009 that bilateral treaties are not solutions and the membership debate has to be checked again.[103]
Within western Europe, there are five microstates: Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, the Vatican City, and Liechtenstein. The last of these is a member of EFTA (see section EFTA states for its details). Monaco, San Marino and the Vatican City have all signed agreements allowing them not only to use the euro, but to mint their own coins. They all also are de facto part of the Schengen agreement or have a largely open border with the EU and have close relations with their neighbouring state, for example Monaco is a full part of the EU's customs territory via France, and applies most EU measures relating to VAT and excise duties.[104]
Close cooperation and inclusion in systems like the Eurozone are offered to them. This does not come without conditions. The EU requires cooperation in e.g. tax control in return. Monaco has already implemented the EU Directive on the taxation of savings interest.
In Andorra (the largest European microstate), the government has said that "for the time being" there is no need to join the EU;[105] however, the opposition Social Democratic Party is in favour.[106]
Monaco joined the Council of Europe in 2004,[107] a move that required it to renegotiate its relations with France, which previously had the right to nominate various ministers.[108] This was seen as part of a general move toward Europe.[109] One concern is that, unlike the constitutional monarchies within the EU, the Prince of Monaco has considerable executive powers and is not merely a figurehead.
In San Marino the centrist Popular Alliance has been reported to be in favour of joining the EU, which the ruling Sammarinese Christian Democratic Party opposed in 2006.[110] In 2010 the Parliament tasked the government to open negotiations for further integration with the European Union,[111] and subsequently a technical group prepared a report on the topic including the options of EU and EEA membership.[112] A planned referendum on EU membership for 27 March 2011 was cancelled by the government.[113]
The Vatican City (the smallest state in the world) as a theocracy does not have the democratic credentials to join the EU and is unlikely to attain them given its unique status. Additionally its economy is also of unique non-commercial nature and thus EU membership is not discussed, even though it is in the heart of an EU member state.
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the former Soviet republics of South-eastern and Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus have been looked upon as potential candidates for EU enlargement. The majority of them are or have been closely linked to Russia and would need to concentrate more on other European partners to attain candidate status. It is expected that these states will remain outside the Union for a significant amount of time, because they are not currently on any enlargement agenda (in contrast to the Western Balkan states, Turkey, and Iceland).
However, a summit in Mamaia, Romania, in May 2004 showed enlargement to be a definite possibility, though only Ukraine and Moldova were present, as Belarus was not concerned with membership.
The South Caucasus states of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have been the site of much instability since the 1990s. Their EU membership would be conditional on the political assessment by the European Council about whether they are considered European. Nevertheless, all three states have been admitted as full members into the Council of Europe (like Cyprus) after a similar assessment process. Before the first official visit of external relations commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner to the three Caucasus states, it was stated that if she were asked about enlargement, she would not rule it out.[114] It is unclear as to when they may move towards membership, even though they are part of the European Neighbourhood Policy and are often referred to as part of "a wider Europe". Since their only land contact with European states is through Russia and Turkey, it is possible that they would only join after Turkey did so. However, on 12 January 2002, the European Parliament noted that Armenia and Georgia may enter the EU in the future regardless.[115]
The ENP Action Plans adopted by the EU and each individual partner state (Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan) states that "the EU takes note of expressed European aspirations by the ENP partner".
In May 2008, Poland and Sweden put forward a joint proposal for an "Eastern Partnership" with Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, with Russia and Belarus participating in some aspects. Eventually, Belarus joined the initiative as full member, while Russia does not participate at all. The Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski said "We all know the EU has enlargement fatigue. We have to use this time to prepare as much as possible so that when the fatigue passes, membership becomes something natural"[116] In May 2009, the Eastern Partnership was inaugurated. Its members include the European Union as well as the post-Soviet states Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.
With the inauguration of the second Barroso Commission in February 2010, the European Neighbourhood Policy was transferred from the portfolio of the External Relations Commissioner (replaced by the High Representative) to the Enlargement Commissioner.
A Polish-Swedish authored EU strategy sees the Eastern section of the Neighbourhood policy being split off and combined with the Eastern Partnership. These states would be offered full integration short of membership, but no enlargement would be on the agenda in the short to medium term.[10]
Armenia is geographically located entirely within Western Asia. However, like Cyprus, it has traditionally been regarded as culturally associated with Europe because of its long historical connections with European society, including a large diaspora and a historically Christian population.
Several Armenian officials have expressed the desire for their country to eventually become an EU member state,[117] some predicting that it will make an official bid for membership in a few years.[118] Public opinion in Armenia suggests the move for membership would be welcomed, with 64% out of a sample of 2,000 being in favour and only 11.8% being against.[119]
Armenia is still in conflict over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) with neighbouring Azerbaijan. Since 1994, a ceasefire has been in place, but tensions remain very high between the two countries. Although the country's economy had one of the world's fastest growth rates in the past few years, this comes following a low base and many years of near-continuous recession.[120] Still, Armenia, being ranked 28th, is ahead of a number of EU member nations such as Austria, France, Portugal and Italy in the 2008 Index of Economic Freedom.[121]
The Metsamor nuclear power plant, which is situated some 40 km west of Yerevan, is built on top of an active seismic zone and is a matter of negotiation between Armenia and the EU. Towards the end of 2007, Armenia approved a plan to shut down the Metsamor plant in compliance with the New European Neighbourhood Policy Action Plan.[122] This is likely to take place by 2016 when the operating term of the Metsamor facility expires.[123]
Azerbaijan, a majority-Shia Muslim but secular country with a Turkic population, would need to overcome several obstacles in order to be considered a potential EU candidate. The oil-rich country has made improvements to its infrastructure, but much of the money from its very high GDP growth, one of the world's fastest, still does not seem to find its way into the lower echelons of society, despite being larger and more technologically modernised than its neighbours Georgia and Armenia. Its economy is also suffering from the "Dutch disease," as oil is becoming its primary export, rendering the manufacturing sector less competitive.[124] Corruption is another serious issue and recent presidential elections in Azerbaijan were disputed by the opposition and have been criticised for not being free, fair or democratic by international observers. The country also needs to resolve the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh with neighbouring Armenia, as the EU wishes to ease tensions in the area.
The EU's relations with Belarus are strained as the EU has condemned the government of Belarus several times for authoritarian and anti-democratic practices, and even imposed sanctions on the country.[125] Under its current president, Belarus has instead sought a close confederation with Russia, short of political reunion. According to the initial ENP plan in 2004 Belarus is considered a potential participant, but not yet ready. Because of warming moves by both sides,[126] Belarus became a member of the Eastern Partnership in 2009 despite its non-participation in the ENP.
Georgia's current President Mikheil Saakashvili has expressed a desire for Georgia to join the EU. This view has been explicitly expressed on several occasions as links to the United States, EU and NATO have been strengthened in an attempt to move away from the Russian sphere of influence. Territorial integrity issues in Ajaria were dealt with after the Rose Revolution, when leader Aslan Abashidze was forced to resign in May 2004. However, unresolved territorial integrity issues have again risen to the forefront in South Ossetia and Abkhazia as a result of the 2008 South Ossetia War.
On 11 November 2010, Georgian Deputy Prime Minister Giorgi Baramidze announced that Georgia wants to cooperate with Ukraine in their attempt to join the European Union.[127]
The government of Moldova has stated that the country has European aspirations but there has been little progress. In 2005, the ruling Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova reoriented their foreign policy towards Europe. The unresolved territorial integrity issue of the breakaway republic of Transnistria is a major barrier to any progress. On 6 October 2005, the EU opened its permanent mission in Chişinău, the capital city of Moldova.
Moldova currently aspires to join the European Union and is implementing its first three-year action plan within the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) of the EU. The Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) represents the legal framework for the Republic of Moldova—European Union relationship.[128] The agreement was signed on 28 November 1994 and entered into force on 1 July 1998 for the next 10 years. This arrangement provides for a basis of cooperation with the EU in the political, commercial, economic, legal, cultural, and scientific areas. The EU is developing an increasingly close relationship with Moldova, going beyond co-operation, to gradual economic integration and a deepening of political co-operation.
In August 2009, four Moldovan parties agreed to create a governing coalition, called Alliance For European Integration. The Liberal Democratic Party, Liberal Party, Democratic Party, and Our Moldova have committed themselves to achieving such goals as European integration and promoting a balanced, consistent, and responsible foreign policy.
Some political parties within both Moldova and Romania advocate a merging of the two countries. Such a scenario would incorporate the current territory of Moldova into Romania and thus into the EU, though the Transnistria problem would still be an issue.[129][130]
Many political factions of Ukraine advocate joining the EU and developing ties with Europe. Since the Orange Revolution of late 2004, Ukraine's membership prospects have improved. (At that time) opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko hinted that he would press the EU for deeper ties, and described a four-point plan: the acknowledgment of Ukraine as a market economy, entry in the World Trade Organisation, associate membership with the EU, and lastly full membership.[131] However, following ambiguous signals from the EU, Ukrainian President Yushchenko later responded to the apathetic mood of the Commission by stating that he intends to send an application for EU membership "in the near future". In September 2009 two Ukrainian diplomats, backed by a number of others, went on record arguing that Ukraine should submit a formal application for membership in 2010 in order to get a clearer message from Brussels; a 2009 poll indicates 34% support from the Ukrainian people for membership.[132] If it had been lodged in 2010, it would have likely been considered a year later under the Polish EU presidency, a country which has supported Ukrainian membership. It was never lodged.[133] A November 2011 poll by Razumkov Center showed 45% of Ukrainians polled supported Ukraine's membership of the EU, while 34.2% were against.[134]
Inside the EU, opinion is split. Several EU leaders have already stated strong support for closer economic ties with Ukraine but have stopped short of direct support for such a bid. In 2005, Polish Foreign Minister Adam Daniel Rotfeld noted that Poland will in every way promote Ukraine's desire to be integrated with the EU, get the status of a market-economy country and join the WTO. Portugal also publicly stated it supports Ukraine's EU accession.[135] On 13 January 2005 the European Parliament almost unanimously (467 votes to 19 in favour) passed a motion stating the wish of the Parliament to establish closer ties with Ukraine with the possibility of EU membership. A 2005 poll of the six largest EU nations showed that the European public would be more likely to accept Ukraine as a future EU member than any other country that was not currently an official candidate. The European Commission has stated that future EU membership will not be ruled out and in 2005 Commission President José Manuel Barroso said that the future of Ukraine is in the EU. However, the Commission suggested that the current enlargement agenda (the Western Balkans and Turkey) could block the possibility of a future accession of the Eastern Partnership states. Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said that the EU should avoid overstretch, adding that the current enlargement agenda is already very heavy.[136] In 2002, then-Enlargement Commissioner Günter Verheugen said that "a European perspective" for Ukraine does not necessarily mean membership in 10 or 20 years, however, that does not mean it is not a possibility.
The Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) with Kazakhstan has been the legal framework for EU-Kazakhstan bilateral relations since it entered into force in 1999.[137] "Kazakhstan has a westward extension, which makes a strong case geographically for its European Neighbourhood status."[138] In 2009, the ambassador of Kazakhstan to Russia, Adilbek Dzhaksybekov said "We would like to join in the future the European Union, but to join not as Estonia and Latvia, but as an equal partner".[139] This statement is mostly visionary and about long term perspective, because currently Kazakhstan is not even participating in the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) although the Kazakh Foreign Ministry has expressed interest in the ENP and MEPs also suggested Kazakhstan's inclusion in the ENP.[138] However, membership would require big advances in human rights and democracy.
During the preparation stages of the ENP, Russia insisted on the creation of the four EU-Russia Common Spaces instead of ENP participation, as it saw the ENP as "unequal" arrangement with a dominant role of the EU. In the framework of the EU-Russia Common Spaces in May 2005, a roadmap was adopted with similar content to the ENP Action Plans. Both the ENP and the EU-Russia Common Spaces are implemented by the EU through the European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument.
Among the most vocal supporters of Russian membership of the EU has been Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi; in October 2008 he said "I consider Russia to be a Western country and my plan is for the Russian Federation to be able to become a member of the European Union in the coming years" and stated that he had this vision for years.[140] Russian permanent representative to the EU Vladimir Chizhov commented on this by saying that Russia has no plans of joining the EU.[141] Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has said that Russia joining the EU would not be in the interests of either Russia or the EU, although he advocated close integration in various dimensions including establishment of four common spaces between Russia and the EU, including united economic, educational and scientific spaces as it was declared in the agreement in 2003.[142][143][144][145]
At present, the prospect of Russia joining the EU any time in the near future is slim. Analysts have commented that Russia is "decades away" from qualifying for EU membership.[146] Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder has also said that though Russia must "find its place both in NATO, and, in the longer term, in the European Union, and if conditions are created for this to happen" that such a thing is not economically feasible in the near future.[147]
In the Treaty of Maastricht (Article 49), it is stated that any European country (as defined by the EU political assessment) that respects the principles of the European Union may apply to join. No mention is made of enlarging the EU to include non-European countries, and the precedents of turning down Morocco's application and defining Israel's closest integration as "just short of full membership" suggest that currently states outside geographic Europe are unlikely to obtain full EU membership.
Despite such precedents, Cape Verde has expressed its desire to join the EU.[148][149][150]
However, some non-European states have different degrees of integration with the EU stipulated by agreements, always short of membership. Alternatively such countries could be integrated into a larger regional block or an overlapping block such as Nicolas Sarkozy's proposal to create a Mediterranean Union, or a lesser organisation such as the Euro-Mediterranean free trade area. The current frameworks for development of such agreements are the Barcelona process and the European Neighbourhood Policy.
Cape Verde is an island nation of the Atlantic Ocean and formerly a Portuguese colony. In March 2005 former Portuguese president Mário Soares launched a petition urging the European Union to start membership talks with it, saying that Cape Verde could act as a bridge between Africa, Latin America and the EU.[151]
Cape Verde's per capita GDP is lower than any of the current member states, accession countries, or candidate countries. Most of the imports and exports of Cape Verde are from and to the European Union, and it has a service-based economy. Its currency, the escudo, is pegged to the euro.
Although the Cape Verde archipelago is geographically in Africa, there have been similar situations before. Cyprus is an island nation which, despite being geographically in Asia, has already joined both the Council of Europe and the EU. Furthermore, the Cape Verde islands are part of the same island group as the Canary Islands (part of Spain) and Madeira Islands (part of Portugal), known as Macaronesia. There is currently no political recognition by the EU of Cape Verde as a European state, but unlike in the case of Morocco, there is no formal rejection either.
Recently Cape Verde has been distancing itself from its regional African partners and forging closer ties with the EU. In a move signaling its preparation to loosen ties with the West African regional bloc, the government of Cape Verde in September 2006 declared its intentions on suspending the ECOWAS free movement of goods and trade. Prime Minister José Maria Neves announced that his country will start imposing restrictions on the entrance of citizens from all ECOWAS member states. This is also an effort to limit the recent rise of illegal immigration of other West African nationals using Cape Verde and its proximity to the Canary Islands as a springboard towards Europe.
The principle of Israel joining the European Union has been supported by some politicians in both Israel and Europe, including the former Israeli Foreign Minister, Silvan Shalom,[152] Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Avigdor Lieberman[153] and former Italian Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi.[154] Two Italian MEPs are currently campaigning in favour of Israeli membership.[155] An opinion poll in 2004 showed that 85% of Israelis would support an application for membership.[156] Another survey in 2011 showed support for EU membership is 81%.[157]
The Israeli government has hinted several times that an EU membership bid is a possibility, but the EU itself proposes instead the closest possible integration "just short of full membership." Faster advancement of such plans is somewhat hampered by the current instability in the Middle East and conflicts in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Lebanon. European public opinion of some of Israel's policies—especially those related to the aforementioned areas of conflict is, in general, poor.[158] Proponents of Israel's accession to the EU suggest that such accession would help promote peace, because being a part of a strong alliance like the EU would allow Israel to withdraw from the occupied territories with no fear of risking its security.
The European Council has not been asked to take a stance regarding whether or not Israel is a European state, but similar circumstances to Morocco (being geographically outside Europe and without exceptional features such as CoE membership) will most likely preclude its inclusion as a full member into the EU as well. However, it can obtain a large degree of integration through the current and future EU Neighbourhood Policies – the former Spanish foreign minister Miguel Ángel Moratinos spoke out for a "privileged partnership, offering all the benefits of EU membership, without participation in the institutions". On 11 January 2005, industry commissioner and vice president of the commission Günter Verheugen even suggested the possibility of a monetary union and common market with Israel.
An argument[159] for the inclusion of Israel into the EU as a full member is that it has a mostly "European" (or perhaps Europeanised) culture and thus forms an exclave in a largely Arab region. Israel also has a GDP per capita similar to many European countries. Some claim that allowing Israel into the EU would create a precedent for other geographically non-European countries to apply for membership, but in fact[160] this precedent already exists as Cyprus, which is already a member state, is geographically in Asia. Proponents of Israel's accession to the EU claim that Israel's situation is similar to that of Cyprus—a country outside of Europe geographically, but a part of Europe culturally and socially.
Morocco submitted an application to join the EU (then EEC) in July 1987, but it was rejected by the European Council later in the year on the grounds that it "did not consider Morocco a European country". Although there are factors such as the developing economy or unresolved border issues with several of its neighbours and the occupation of Western Sahara, a European Union Association Agreement similar to that applied to Tunisia and Algeria is implemented between Morocco and the EU. The Moroccan government argues that a "substantial" amount of its territory is already part of the European Union, specifically Spanish enclaves in Northern Africa that Morocco says are occupied territory.
There are multiple Special member state territories, some of them are not fully covered by the EU treaties and apply EU law only partially, if at all. It is possible for a dependency to change its status regarding the EU and/or some particular treaty or law provision. The territory may change its status from participation to leaving or from being outside to joining.
The only country with the status of British Overseas Territory that is part of the EU is Gibraltar, which joined the EEC together with the United Kingdom in 1973. The other overseas territories are defined as Overseas Countries and Territories of the EU. All of them – except Bermuda – are associated with the EU (meaning they apply some parts of EU law) and their nationals are in principle EU citizens.[161]
Special terms were negotiated for the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man on the UK’s accession to the European Economic Community. These are contained in Protocol 3 to the Treaty of Accession 1973. The effect of the protocol is that the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man are within the Common Customs Area and the Common External Tariff (i.e. they enjoy access to European Union countries of physical exports without tariff barriers). Other Community rules do not apply to the Islands.
The UK Sovereign Base Areas, Akrotiri and Dhekelia on Cyprus did not join the European Union when the United Kingdom joined. Cyprus' Accession Treaty specifically stated that this would not change with the accession of Cyprus to the European Union. However, currently, some provisions of the EU Law are applicable there—mainly border management, food safety and free movement of people and goods.
The Faroe Islands, a self-governing nation within the Kingdom of Denmark, are not part of the EU, as explicitly asserted by both Rome treaties.[162] The relations with the EU are governed by a Fisheries Agreement (1977) and a Free Trade Agreement (1991, revised 1998). The main reason for remaining outside the EU is disagreements about the Common Fisheries Policy,[163] which disfavours countries with large fish resources. Also, every member has to pay for the Common Agricultural Policy, which favours countries having much agriculture which the Faroe Islands does not.
Nevertheless, there are politicians, mainly in the right-wing Union Party (Sambandsflokkurin), led by their chairman Kaj Leo Johannesen, who would like to see the Faroes as a member of the EU. However, the chairman of the left-wing Republic (Tjóðveldi), Høgni Hoydal, has expressed concerns that if the Faroes were to join the EU as is, they might vanish inside the EU, comparing this with the situation of the Shetland Islands and Åland today, and wants the local government to solve the political situation between the Faroes and Denmark first.[164]
On 26 September 2008, Kaj Leo Johannesen became Prime Minister of the Faroe Islands, and according to him his new government is actively going to seek a progressive Europe-policy, even stating that membership of the EU is a strong possibility.
Greenland, a self-governing community that is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, is the only country to have left the EEC or EU. After the establishment of Greenland's home rule in 1979 (effective from 1980), a second referendum on membership was held, where the people decided to leave the EEC. On 1 February 1985, Greenland left the EEC and EURATOM. Its status was changed to that of an Overseas Country.[161] Danish nationals residing in Greenland (i.e. all native population) are nonetheless fully European citizens; they are not, however, entitled to vote in European elections.
There has been some speculation as to whether Greenland may consider rejoining the European Union. On 4 January 2007 the Danish daily Jyllands-Posten quoted the former Danish minister for Greenland, Tom Høyem, as saying "I would not be surprised if Greenland again becomes a member of the EU... The EU needs the Arctic window and Greenland cannot alone manage the gigantic Arctic possibilities".[165]
The islands of Aruba, Curaçao, Sint Maarten are constituent countries of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, while Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba are special Dutch municipalities. All are Overseas Countries and Territories (OCT) under Annex II of the EC treaty.[161] OCTs are considered to be "associated" with the EU and apply some portions of EU law. The islands are opting to become an Outermost Region (OMR) of the EU, the same status the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands and the French overseas departments have.
When Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba were established as Dutch public bodies after the dissolution of the Netherlands Antilles (which was an OCT) in 2010, their status within the EU were raised. Rather than change their status from an OCT to an outermost region, as their change in status within the Netherlands would imply, it was decided that their status would remain the same for at least five years. After those five years, their status would be reviewed.
If it was decided that one or all of the islands wish to integrate more with the EU then the Treaty of Lisbon provides for that following a unanimous decision from the European Council.[166] Former European Commissioner for Enlargement Danuta Hübner has said before the European Parliament that she doesn't expect many problems to occur with such a status change, as the islands consist of only a few thousand people.
The territories of French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mayotte and Réunion are overseas departments of France and at the same time mono-departmental overseas regions. According to the EC treaty (article 299 2), these overseas departments are outermost regions (OMR) of the EU—hence provisions of the EC treaty apply there while derogations are allowed. The status of the overseas collectivities of Saint-Barthelemy and Saint-Martin is also defined as OMR by the Treaty of Lisbon. New Caledonia and the overseas collectivities of French Polynesia, Saint Pierre et Miquelon and Wallis and Futuna are Overseas Countries and Territories of the EU.[161]
New Caledonia has a unique status inside France and is not even a collectivité territoriale, unlike all other French subdivisions. Currently, in regard to the EU, it is one of the Overseas Countries and Territories (OCT).
As a result of the 1998 Nouméa Accord, New Caledonians will vote on an independence referendum scheduled between 2014 and 2019. This referendum will determine whether the territory remains a part of the French Republic as a "sui generis collectivity", or whether it will become an independent nation. The accords also specify a gradual devolution of powers to the local New Caledonian assembly.
Saint Martin and Saint-Barthélemy in 2007 seceded from Guadeloupe and became overseas collectivities of France, but at the same time remained OMRs of the European Union. Later, the elected representatives of the island of Saint-Barthélemy expressed desire "to obtain a European status which would be better suited to its status under domestic law, particularly given its remoteness from the mainland, its small insular economy largely devoted to tourism and subject to difficulties in obtaining supplies which hamper the application of some European Union standards." France, reflecting this desire, requested at the Council of the European Union to change the status of Saint Barthélemy to an OCT associated with the European Union.[167]
It is expected that the status change will be in effect from 1 January 2012.[167]
Officially, the island nation Cyprus is part of the European Union, under the de jure sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus. Turkish Cypriots are citizens of the Republic of Cyprus and thus of the European Union, and were entitled to vote in the 2004 European Parliament election (though only a few hundred registered). The EU's acquis communautaire is suspended indefinitely in the northern third of the island, which has remained outside the control of the Republic of Cyprus since the Turkish invasion of 1974. The Greek Cypriot community rejected the Annan Plan for the settlement of the Cyprus dispute in a referendum on 24 April 2004. Had the referendum been in favour of the settlement proposal, the island (excluding the British Sovereign Base Areas) would have joined the European Union as the United Cyprus Republic.
The European Union's relations with the Turkish Cypriot Community are handled by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Enlargement.[168]
There are a number of independence movements within member states, e.g., in Catalonia, Flanders, Basque Country and Scotland. At present, only one region or territory of an existing EU member state, Algeria, has seceded and became an independent state (from France), and if such a scenario were to occur there is uncertainty as to what would happen if the new country wished to remain a part of the EU. The Commission has so far refused to form an official position on such scenarios, considering them "entirely hypothetical".[169][170]
One close precedent to such a scenario would be Greenland voting to leave the European Economic Community (the predecessor to the EU) after gaining greater autonomy from Denmark in 1982. However, the similarity between this and other proposed scenarios is disputed.[171] If a seceding province/country re-applied for EU membership, such a country would likely have no problems in meeting the criteria for membership as it already complies with EU law.
In case of a Flemish secession from Belgium, the future status of Brussels (the de facto capital of the EU) could be unclear. There are proposals for Brussels to become an EU capital district (such as Canberra, Washington, D.C. or Brasília) or member state with heavy involvement and subsidy from the EU.[172][173]
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